1. Tariffs will increase the pain abroad. Trump’s new policy seems likely to exacerbate the problems that are producing migration in the first place. There are many reasons people around the world flee their countries and head to the United States, but economics is a big one: It’s easier to make money here than in their home countries.
Under those circumstances, Trump’s tariffs make zero sense. The president’s idea is that the policy will work by creating pain in the Mexican economy, forcing that country’s officials to act more aggressively to end migration into the U.S. That pain will take the form of reduced profits and — it seems likely — smaller workforces at Mexican companies.
What will Mexican workers do when they lose their jobs? Probably the same thing as their compatriots from across Latin America: head north. Trump’s new plan might actually increase the number of migrants seeking work in the United States.
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