The US forward deployment was part of a combined plan set forth with the British to place two fleets on Japan's flanks. The US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor along with the British Eastern Fleet at Singapore was to deter any Japanese action into SE Asia. However, the Japanese attacked before the full Eastern Fleet could be assembled, with only Force Z in place.
Battleships Idaho & Mississippi and heavy cruisers Tuscaloosa & Wichita were at anchorHvalfjordur, Iceland; with others in Newfoundland and Bermuda. This forward deployment allowed Britain to detach Force Z and the R-class battleships to form the Eastern Fleet. Fortunately, Japan did not coordinate with Germany for a strike against these ships.
The main reason is that the Japanese knew that US oil production was of such a level that the loss of a portion (as they could not destroy it all) would only be an inconvenience to the US. They looked at their own reserves, consumption and production and knew they had to act quickly due to American naval ship production that would overwhelm them by 1944. Plus, the US was having difficulty maintaining their fuel reserves in Pearl Harbor with only 11 oilers and war would dramatically increase their consumption - which it did.
...The roughly 2 hour flight back to the Japanese carriers put them all back on deck by 1200.
The Japanese lose 29 aircraft with 74 damaged out of 353. That is approximately 1/3 of their aircraft.
They would need to prepare the 3rd Wave to strike the fuel tanks and navy yard; but also a 4th Wave to prepare to hit any US naval forces at sea - particularly the 3 US carriers that were missing.
A 3rd Wave would also encounter prepared defenses, both aircraft and anti-air artillery. As the 2nd Wave suffered greater casualties than the 1st Wave, this strike could result in heavy losses with mixed results.
The larger issues at play were:
▶️ Need to refuel ships as the destroyers were running low
▶️ The loss of further aircraft would hinder future ops for the Kido Butai - as happened with Carrier Div 5 at Coral Sea
▶️ The 1st Mobile Fleet was needed to support attacks against Rabaul, Darwin, the Dutch East Indies and to neutralize the British Eastern Fleet, before returning to deal with the US.
The prospect of some lost oil and damage to repair facilities did not warrant - to the Japanese - the further diversion of their primary striking force in the Pacific.’
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