Jacob is right to observe that the timing of Trump’s announcement aids Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign for re-election, and bolsters the Israelis and Saudis in their anti-Iranian campaign. So much the better. Netanyahu lacks charm and, it appears, principle. He also represents stability and competence, qualities that a serious power needs from its client states. These qualities are in increasingly short supply in the region. It’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s neophyte challenger Benjamin Gantz possesses them. Better the Benjamin you know.
Here we see a hidden continuity between the Obama and Trump administrations. The US is a status quo power in the Middle East, committed to the paradox of maintaining its regional influence while reducing its military footprint. The only way to reconcile these goals is to outsource the military element. The Obama administration’s folly was to assume that balancing the Iranian-led Shi’ite crescent against Israel and the Sunni powers was a recipe for stability, as opposed to a nuclear free-for-all. The Trump administration’s wisdom is to build up the allies of the status quo — Israel, the Saudis, Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf states. There is an obvious logic here, too. Iran is their problem before it is anyone else’s.
But Iran is also everyone else’s problem.
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