Scenario 3: The House votes to impeach Trump, but the Senate does not hold a trial.
I am not the only person who thinks this is possible. It is not totally unprecedented for the Senate to refuse to vote on the House’s impeachment, but it has also not happened since the 18th century, when the upper chamber concluded that William Blount, himself a senator, was not an officer of the federal government. Impeachment proceedings themselves are rare, however, and there is no reason to think that there could not be more anomalies to be teased out of the process. And if recent history has shown us anything it is that if “Cocaine” Mitch McConnell doesn’t want to take up certain business in the chamber he controls, nobody is going to make him. This is what I expect to happen if Democrats do end up impeaching Trump. It would be preferable rhetorically speaking for Pelosi to be able to complain about McConnell’s perfidy without having to face the prospect of a no vote. If something accomplishes nothing while saving face for both of our major political parties, it’s a safe-enough bet.