Transactional Trump supporters — that is, conservatives who backed the president strictly as a tool to deliver certain policy outcomes — comprise a vast coalition of goals and interests. Yet that coalition is also disproportionately comprised of opinion journalists, politicians, and other highly visible professional ideologues. As a result, it can be jarring to remember that Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters is not a pragmatic 52 percent, but an overwhelming 89 percent.

What transactional Trump supporters have to remember, in other words, is that their qualified appreciation of the president does not reflect the views of his most loyal electorate. It’s thus naïve to conclude — as many in this camp do — that Trump’s popularity or political capital will decline in sync with what high-profile center–right voices consider disappointments or betrayals. This is particularly critical to keep in mind as a new Congress is inaugurated, impeachment talk rises, and the 2020 election edges closer. One’s ability to appreciate how precarious Trump’s fate is or isn’t in these newfound situations cannot simply be a matter of projecting what ought to happen.

Coulter herself engaged in some classic projection in a recent column (“Gutless President in Wall-less Country”), in which she expressed incredulity that anyone could possibly be attracted to the president for reasons less transactional than hers.