Second, losing the House would allow Trump to (plausibly) spread the blame. Right now, Republicans own everything that happens—or doesn’t happen. That changes the minute Democrats take over the House.

Trump might even take a page from Harry Truman’s playbook. Heading into the 1946 midterm elections, Truman was wildly unpopular, which resulted in Republicans picking up 55 House seats and 12 Senate seats. It was widely believed that Truman would suffer a similar fate in 1948, losing the presidential election. Yet, Truman famously defied the odds by running against the famous “Do-Nothing Congress” and winning reelection.

Similarly, one can imagine Donald Trump making 2020 a referendum on the Democratic Congress. Even with Nancy Pelosi out of power, Republicans have effectively demonized her in local races. Imagine what Donald Trump could do with a Speaker Pelosi (or whoever becomes the face of the Democratic Party).