I worry that too many pro-lifers believe that the nomination and presumed confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court will finally bring down Roe v. Wade, returning the contentious issue of abortion to the states.
Color me very dubious. The Supreme Court has always been as much a political body as a legal one. Reversing Roe would not just bring about increased social conflict, but spark a raging cultural conflagration. As he demonstrated in confirming Obamacare, Chief Justice Roberts will be loath to allow his beloved Supreme Court to be in the vortex of such turmoil — even though the Roe justices created the vortex in the first place.
I think some other conservative justices — other than Thomas — might be similarly reticent. If I am right, it would take more than the 5-4 conservative majority on the High Bench to make Roe go the way of Plessy v. Ferguson.
I do, however, believe that Kavanaugh’s elevation will lead to SCOTUS allowing greater state regulation of abortion than it has heretofore permitted. In other words, to the fury of the increasingly openly pro-abortion enthusiasts — and the pronounced disappointment of pro-lifers — in the near term at least, Roe will probably bend, but it will not break.