Hence a third theory: Trump’s allies think he’s basically clean on Russia, but committed some serious criminal acts as a businessman or in his personal life. It would take real wrongdoing for prosecutors to be able to threaten Cohen with life in prison, as Dershowitz has it, and for Cohen’s testimony to be as damaging as the White House is telegraphing it fears it would be.

The public has no idea what Trump’s real criminal liabilities, if any, are, but the people speaking up in his defense are publicly suggesting they believe some combination of the second and third theories. This must all be maddening to Trump’s actual lawyers, who have to organize his defense. Cobb has been consistently wrong in predicting the conclusion of Mueller’s probe, and his warning that an interview with Mueller might be a “perjury trap” is peculiar, since the easy way to avoid a perjury charge is to avoid lying under oath. One thing Cobb has managed to do, however, is to consistently assert Trump’s innocence.

Few of the president’s other lawyers, past or present, have done the same.