It’s been clear for a while that Democrats might take one of Arizona’s seats, with incumbent Republican Sen. Jeff Flake retiring. But — and look, it’s uncomfortable to discuss this — Sen. John McCain’s health now has major political implications as well. McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate for more than three decades, is suffering from brain cancer and has not been on Capitol Hill since December. If McCain resigns or passes away before May 30, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, would appoint a temporary replacement. But there would be a primary in August for the seat and an election in November.3
About half of Arizona voters approve of Trump and half disapprove, according to the recent Morning Consult poll. Trump won the state by less than 4 points. Arizona isn’t all that red, in other words. And if there are two open seats, the chances are that much higher that at least one of them will feature an uber-conservative GOP nominee, which might make it hard to win a general election. In the race for the Flake seat, the GOP establishment has coalesced around U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, who is running in the Republican primary against the tea party-aligned Kelli Ward and former Phoenix-area sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to follow a judicial order to stop racially profiling and detaining Latinos. (Arpaio was pardoned by Trump last year.)
If the McCain seat is open, Arpaio, Ward or another candidate who might be too conservative for the state could switch to run in that race instead. It may be hard for more establishment Republicans in Arizona to lock the anti-establishment wing of the party out of both seats.
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