North Korea has, predictably, responded to Trump’s threat-mongering with further threat-mongering of their own, targeting Guam in language far more specific than its usual braggadocio. And the national security adviser has acknowledged that the United States is “prepared” to launch a preventative war — language which falls well short of saying that such an assault is “planned,” but clearly intended to warn the North Koreans of the potentially catastrophic consequences of continued recalcitrance.

But how can the North Koreans know whether this truly constitutes policy, or whether it is an attempt to bolster what amounts to a presidential bluff?

The simple answer is: They can’t. The North Koreans can evaluate our capabilities, but they can’t be sure that they have perfect knowledge of these. They have no way of knowing whether the Trump administration is genuinely committed to preventative war or not, though the fact that they have done virtually nothing to prepare the ground for conflict may incline them to believe that Trump’s threats are all bluff. They have no way of knowing whether the Trump administration is open to a negotiated solution or not, or what might be on the table if negotiations resumed.