At this point, health policy experts say it’s more likely than not that Senate Republicans can’t pass a health-care bill unveiled Thursday.

For one thing, the bill’s been negotiated in secret by the Senate majority leader and a few aides and lobbyists. Already wary GOP senators are starting off frustrated.

“Hearing senators were not actually give the health bill at this 9:30 meeting and told they would get it at 11 along with everyone else”
— Erica Werner (@ericawerner) June 22, 2017

But Republicans have a bigger problem than bad blood. They are ideologically divided, spread between conservatives who fundamentally don’t believe in the government’s role in health care and moderates who think Obamacare was a step in the right direction.