Is Pres. Trump’s coalition is likely to be long-lasting? The diversity found in even the four major clusters would tend to argue against it. That large segments of the coalition are comprised of people who were favorable to Hillary Clinton in 2012, but became disenchanted with her suggests the potential for poaching by good Democratic politicians.
Indeed, given the rockiness of the past few months, it is far from obvious that Trump — who succeeded largely by instinct and improvisation — possesses the sort of political skills that may be required to maintain his own coalition. This is not necessarily a yuge knock on Trump; Cost and Trende would tell you it’s a very difficult task even for the best of politicians.
Furthermore, as Eakins notes: “The 17 candidates who competed for the Republican primary nomination remind us that when Republican primary voters had other options, many chose someone other than Trump. In the early primaries held during February and March, Trump garnered only about a third (36 percent) while a majority (64 percent) of Republican primary voters cast their ballots for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, or one of the other candidates.”
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