How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

Let’s sketch out a simple scenario where one tragic mistake creates the conditions for direct U.S.-Russia conflict. And as you will see, it does not take a Tom Clancy-like effort to imagine the unthinkable.

Presume for a moment that two weeks from now Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launches another chemical weapons attack — this time killing 400 people outside of Damascus. Trump decides to raise the stakes, launching over 150 cruise missiles in a much wider effort to damage Assad’s air force. But this time things go wrong. U.S. forces attempt to inform the Russian government of what is coming, but their efforts are made more difficult now that a deconfliction agreement was canceled by Moscow after the last strike. While Washington does inform the Russian ambassador in Washington four hours before the attack, the message does not filter down the chain of command fast enough — and tragedy ensues. One of the Tomahawk missiles strikes a Syrian air base from which Russian special forces — unknown to the Trump administration — were operating. Sputnik, RT, and Russian domestic media outlets display repeatedly horrific images of soldiers dead or badly wounded — lying in rubble and crying out in pain. Forty-six Russian soldiers lose their lives, with 24 badly wounded.

Putin knows he must forcefully respond — Russian public opinion simply demands it. He also knows a response in Syria would be of limited value — U.S. cruise missiles and stealth aircraft would eventually defeat Russian air defenses and wipe out their presence there, so he decides to expand the chessboard. He orders a massive snap exercise, over 200,000 troops, with army, navy, and nuclear forces going on high alert from Europe to Central Asia. At the same time, he begins to massively increase arm shipments to separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine. In less than a week, Russian backed forces make a drive for Mariupol. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley makes an impassioned plea at the UN for lethal aid to Ukraine, with President Trump approving the sale of advanced anti-tank weapons to Kiev, raising the stakes.

But Putin does not stop there.