Trump is tempting fate on health care

How popular is the Republican health care bill? It’s not popular at all. Here are the six polls on the bill that we’ve found so far…

On average, just 30 percent of voters favor the GOP bill, as compared with 47 percent who oppose it. By comparison, Obamacare had a 40 percent favorable rating and a 49 percent unfavorable rating when it finally passed Congress in March 2010. Later that year, Democrats lost 63 seats in Congress, in part because of the health care bill’s unpopularity. But while Obamacare polled poorly, the numbers for the Republican bill are quite a bit worse.

It’s also the case that a fair amount of the public doesn’t yet have a firm opinion of the GOP bill. In theory, that might represent an opportunity for the GOP to improve the bill’s perception. But the experience of Obamacare suggests the AHCA’s polling may get worse before it gets better. The earliest polls on the Democrats’ health care bill, in the spring and summer of 2009, found the public about evenly divided on it, although with a lot of voters undecided. The vast majority of undecideds turned against the bill, however, as it went through months of congressional infighting. With no clear path forward for Republicans — any bill that could pass the House right now probably won’t pass the Senate without significant alterations — they could be in for the same fate.