The big misses were in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio, with poll averages differing from the final margin by 6-7 points in each Trump state. In Minnesota, we simply didn’t have much data to work with. And in Michigan, the late polls seemed to show a tightening race, even if Trump’s narrow win came as a surprise.
And that last point is key: We had polls in Michigan (of varying quality) showing anywhere between Clinton plus-5 and Trump +2, none of which were statistically significant give their sample sizes (a lead needed to be nearly two times the error margin). But too many of us assumed it was ironclad that Clinton was going to win. I sure did. This belief wasn’t only because of the polls, mind you; it was also because of our preconceptions that Trump couldn’t win a blue-leaning state like that.
The other important thing that happened is that late-deciders broke for Trump. You can make a credible argument that even in some of these states, the polls weren’t as wrong as they seemed; they just couldn’t account for those who made their decisions late. And those people broke strongly for Trump.
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