In the end, his concerns proved unfounded — not because the developed world found a way to negotiate declining fertility rates, but because the years after World War II saw an unexpected baby boom in the U.S., and to a lesser extent, most of Western Europe. That population boom and the consumer demand it begot, is often credited with averting a return to the gloomy days of the 1930s.
Which brings us to the present. The recent data on population growth marks an ominous return to a trough last seen during the Great Depression. Moreover, data released by the real estate firm Trulia last week indicates that the number of young people living with their parents (or siblings) recently hit levels not seen since 1940.
That statistic suggests that a baby boom isn’t likely, never mind a boom in consumption fueled by the formation of new households.
But at least the U.S. still has immigration, right? Perhaps not: President-elect Donald Trump has been vocal about his opposition to illegal immigration, but since the election, he has started to send signals that he intends to crack down on legal immigration, too. If that happens, only a homemade baby boom will save us from further decline in the Trump years.
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