Pelosi may see more defections than Ryan in Speaker vote

It’s unclear how many lawmakers are poised to defy Pelosi this year. But following the Democrats’ dismal election showing in November — when party leaders were predicting upwards of 20 gains, only to pick up six seats — the unrest within the caucus, particularly among junior members, swelled enough to spark another challenge to Pelosi, this time at the hands of Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

Pelosi won the contest easily, but Tim Ryan’s 63 votes marked a sharp jump above the 43 supporters Shuler had earned six years earlier in the closed-door caucus balloting.

The floor vote for Speaker is a different animal, because lawmakers must stand and voice their choice publicly without the privilege of anonymity that surrounds each cycle’s secret-ballot caucus vote.

For now, only four Democrats are on record saying they will oppose Pelosi on the floor: Cooper, Lipinski, Sinema and Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.). That number is expected to grow by Tuesday’s roll call but still fall shy of the 20 defections she faced in 2011 given the diminished ranks of the Blue Dogs these days.