The differences stem from states with substantial numbers of white voters without college degrees — in particular Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and that 2nd district in Maine. (Granted, Nevada is more diverse than the other states — and it also has a history of bad polling — so I’d be careful there.) Imagine if Clinton were 3 or 4 percentage points ahead in Ohio and Iowa instead of 3 or 4 points behind, and that she were ahead by 5 or 6 points in Nevada instead of tied there. That would make for a much more robust map: losing New Hampshire would not be a problem, for instance, and she could even afford to lose Pennsylvania. Speaking of Pennsylvania, Clinton’s polling lead is narrower there than Obama’s was. It’s also much narrower in Michigan, a state that was barely even a swing state in 2012 but presents a risk to Clinton this year.
What does Clinton get in exchange? She’s polling a little better than Obama was in the highly educated swing states of Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado. But it’s only a little bit better — not a lot better — because African-American turnout for Clinton may be lower than it was for Obama in North Carolina and Virginia, and because third-party candidates may be eating into her margin in Colorado. She also has a much better chance of winning Arizona or Georgia than Obama did. But neither Arizona or Georgia are all that close to the electoral tipping point, and Clinton will probably win them only if she’s having a strong night overall and winning all the other swing states, too.
Instead, many of Clinton’s gains relative to Obama come in states that aren’t competitive at all.
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