Just as the Republican candidates should have been more discriminating and cautious in their declarations, most conservatives committed too quickly (and too strongly) either for or against Trump. The most obvious error in judgement came from the NeverTrump movement—among whose members I count myself—which made a serious error in swearing never to endorse Trump under any circumstances.
As a practical matter, the strategy was an abject failure. It persuaded too few Republicans to deny Trump the nomination. Additionally, the movement’s habit of offering opposition without alternative made it seem stubborn and childish on the one hand, while its elite nature—at least, in its early stages—gave it the air of a frustrated parent falling back on a because-I-said-so defense.
As with the pledge, this early over-commitment should have been seen for the foolishness it was. Coalition politics rewards those whose support can—at least in theory—be earned in exchange for the right concession. Or to put it in Trumpian terms, “leverage matters.” So long as the movement identified opposition to Trump itself as a principle, Trump had no incentive to bother with NeverTrumpers or their ideas. They, effectively, walked out of the negotiation room, locked the door, and threw away the key.
It should come as little surprise, then, that Trump looked for votes elsewhere, often in terms that conservatives found offensive (e.g., his call for federally-mandated maternity leave). This was wholly rational on Trump’s part: There is nothing to be gained from negotiating with those who are pledged to oppose you on principle. However much a fool Trump may be in other regards, he’s acutely intelligent here.
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