But a much more important test suggests a gloomier picture of Trump’s standing with his Republican base. Twenty percent of Republicans believe that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a more presidential temperament than Trump. That’s sizably higher than the 13 percent who said so just after the first debate. Even more staggeringly, only 35 percent of Republican voters – not even close to half of the Republican coalition – say that Donald Trump has the more presidential temperament. That’s an unprecedented level of disloyalty toward a major party candidate.

We did not see any increase in Republicans saying they would cross over to vote for Clinton. But all this suggests that Trump has reached his maximum support from Republicans. He may even lose some in the coming weeks. This is particularly worrisome for Trump, as he is already 7 percentage points down nationally, and more than 100 electoral votes down in most forecasts. If he cannot gain his own party’s average level of support for presidential candidates, it is extremely unlikely he can gain more from independent or Democratic voters.