The relationship here isn’t perfect and it doesn’t explain everything. Colorado has moved little despite having a large number of college-educated white residents. And in some of the more racially diverse states, there are other groups of people who contribute to how the state does or doesn’t move.

Trump seems to be benefiting from this tradeoff (shedding college-educated whites while appealing to non-college educated whites) in swing states, but his position has weakened in some redder states. For example, Trump is leading by 7.6 points in Texas, according to the RCP average, but Romney and McCain won the state by 16 points and 12 points, respectively. Trump also seems to have traded Mormons for blue-collar swing-state voters. He leads in Utah by 13 points, while Romney and McCain won the state by 48 points and 28 points, respectively.

This trade-off could be a net positive for Trump. In a close election, some extra support in swing states would be worth giving up some votes in safe states. But right now the election isn’t close enough for this advantage to make a big difference, and Trump would have to make up ground very quickly for this to push him over the top on Election Day.