Many supporters of Hillary Clinton fear—and many fans of Donald Trump hope—that a terror attack in the United States, such as those that struck New York, New Jersey, and Minnesota over the weekend, will decide the election. The assumption on both sides is that Trump, as the anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant, law-and-order candidate, would benefit. But is that true? Three recent attacks—in Paris on Nov. 13, in San Bernardino, California, on Dec. 2, and in Orlando, Florida, on June 12—have tested this assumption. Trump has not gained ground, and in some ways he has suffered, for several reasons. Here’s what the polls show.

1. No freakouts. After Paris, public concern about terrorism rose significantly. In a Quinnipiac University survey taken shortly before the attack, 32 percent of Americans said it was very likely that “in the near future there will be a terrorist attack in the United States causing large numbers of lives to be lost.” When Quinnipiac repeated that question after Paris, the percentage who said “very likely” had climbed to 44 percent. But the subsequent attack in San Bernardino—an actual terror strike in the United States—made little difference. The percentage who said “very likely” barely increased, and the overall percentage who expected future attacks marginally declined. In ABC News/Washington Post surveys, the proportion of respondents who said terrorism was their top presidential voting issue also marginally declined.