Gary Johnson needs to average 25% in his next two polls to qualify for the debates

The Libertarian nominee set a new high in the poll, at 9 percent (Hillary Clinton was at 46 percent, Donald Trump at 41, and Jill Stein at 2), but that only brings his five-poll average to 9.0 percent, with less than a week to go before the CPD’s deadline of “mid September.” With only two of the other polls (CBS News and NBC/Wall Street Journal) due for a new survey between now and then, that means Johnson would have to average 25 percent in each to achieve a five-poll average of 15.0 percent. He has yet to produce a national number higher than 13 percent. It’s no wonder that the Johnson/Bill Weld ticket signaled a new debate strategy yesterday in New York: Drum up outrage at their non-inclusion by hosting live answer sessions outside of each debate this fall.

Other interesting tidbits in this morning’s poll:

* Johnson is competitive with Trump among voters under the age of 40, pulling 17 percent compared to the Republican’s 24 (Clinton dominates with 47 percent; Stein lags at 8). This is consistent with the Libertarian’s campaign-long trend of doing disproportionately well with the youngest blocs of voters.

* Third-party backers are “far more apt than either Clinton or Trump supporters to say they might change their minds by Election Day. Just 15 percent of Clinton and Trump supporters say they could change their minds, vs. 55 percent of Johnson’s and Stein’s.” This would suggest that the typical third-party fade, which unusually did not befall Johnson and Stein over the summer, could yet take place should the Clinton-Trump race tighten.