Over time, however, tensions and contradictions are likely to emerge within the Democratic coalition. Imagine if young working-class Latinos who back Democrats start backing candidates who want to raise taxes on the rich to finance social services designed to benefit their growing families. At least some aging upper-middle-class whites might object to these calls for higher taxes, and they’ll start thinking very hard about backing anti-tax Republicans. Granted, there will be some older upper-middle-class whites who started voting for Democrats in their youth and who’d never defect, regardless of the implications for their pocketbooks. But there will always be some who’ll be willing to bolt, and political professionals will work hard to pry them loose.
Don’t believe that the post-Trump GOP will ever be able to pick off some of today’s Democratic voters? Don’t forget that George W. Bush led the United States into a quagmire in Iraq that led to the deaths of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis. Bush then presided over the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression. Those disasters didn’t prevent Republicans from doing really well in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections. And if Republicans had nominated almost anyone other than Trump this year, including creepy Ted Cruz, they’d have a better-than-even chance of recapturing the White House.
Did Republicans bounce back from the low ebb they reached at the end of the Bush presidency by devising bold, innovative policies for America’s future? Not really. Throughout the Obama years, congressional Republicans have barely kept it together, divided between those who want to shrink popular government programs and those who are so serious about wanting to shrink popular government programs that they are willing to force the United States government to default on its debt obligations to get their way. Nevertheless, Republicans have won elections by appealing to white working-class voters, and they’ll keep working that angle for as long as they can.
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