Clinton has built the sort of coalition that somebody might expect to find in an American city and its nearby suburbs—a mix of old people, rich people, and minorities. She’s winning blacks by a wide margin, and Hispanics, too. Her message is one of optimistic incrementalism, as a lifetime politician and Washington veteran who believes that change comes from within the system.
The Trump phenomenon is the opposite in practically every category, both demographic and stylistic. He is strongest, not among minorities and the rich, but rather among the white and uneducated. His most dependable demographic is middle-aged white men who did not go to college. Neither incremental nor optimistic about the country, his style is more like charismatic doomsdayism—“We never win, anymore,” “Make America great again”—which invites supporters to see the president, not as an important actor in a larger play as Clinton emphasizes, but rather like a one-man show.
Within the Gulf-Atlantic crescent that has been equally important for Clinton and Trump, the differences within particular states illuminate just how opposite their coalitions are. In Virginia, Trump lost women, the affluent D.C. suburbs, moderates, voters with a college degree, and households who made more than $50,000. Clinton didn’t just win these groups. She outperformed in them, winning women, suburbanites, moderates, nonwhite college graduates, and voters making more than $100,000 by huge margins. Meanwhile, Trump’s strength is Hillary’s weakness: the performance of authenticity. Among GOP voters in Virginia who want a candidate who “tells it as it is,” Trump bested his closest rival by a whopping 60 percentage points. Meanwhile, among Democratic Virginians seeking a “honest and trustworthy” candidate, Clinton lost by 50 percentage points.
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