Donald Trump is correct that the higher ups in the GOP may rig the Cleveland convention. But here’s the thing: They may rig it in Trump’s favor.

Trump is cutting it very close in his effort to win 1,237 bound delegates. In an openly and robustly contested convention, Trump would be the underdog, threatened by crafty conservative Ted Cruz and maybe also by an establishment White Knight. As much as they dread a Trump nomination, Republican leaders may fear the appearance of a coup even more. And the party leadership probably has the power to tilt the convention so as to secure a Trump win.

First, the delegate math:

Trump, after New York, has 845 bound delegates, leaving him with nearly 400 to go. Only about 640 delegates remain. If he has a very good day in April 26th’s five primaries he could take 105 or so delegates, leaving him in need of about 55 percent of remaining delegates. Making that tougher for Trump are three of the remaining winner-take-all states where Cruz is the favorite.