An argument against the magical realism of the #NeverTrump crowd

The names floated by the magical realism crowd — John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan — all would likely, on paper at least, be stronger general election candidates than Trump or Cruz. But so would, on paper again, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie — all of whom wound up having more support among donors and establishment types than actual voters.

The idea that delegates on the convention floor — people who are, by and large, quite conservative and are accurately described as the base of the party — would throw over not only the top delegate getter (Trump) but also the candidate who got the second most delegates (Cruz) is decidedly implausible given what we know about the state of the GOP today.

Peter Hart, a veteran Democratic pollster, recently conducted a focus group in St. Louis comprised of Republican voters — with the aim of understanding the Trump phenomenon and its durability. One of his big take-aways? “A brokered convention would likely backfire.”