My view is that Trump is doing well precisely because things aren’t particularly bad for the U.S. right now. In difficult times, voters take their responsibilities more seriously, and wouldn’t embrace the buffoonery of a reality-television star. People can indulge in Trump’s fantasies in a period of (more or less) peace and (sort of) prosperity.

Or perhaps it’s just a consequence of cartoonish characterizations of the Barack Obama administration. Republican politicians (and talk-show hosts and pundits) have been telling their constituents for seven years that Obama is a full-fledged disaster. Yet unemployment is way down since he took office, and tangible signs of foreign-policy losses are difficult to identify.

For people with a strong ideological point of view, Obamacare — with its principle that access to health care is a responsibility of the federal government — represents a disaster by itself, but most voters don’t care about the principle. They care about health care, and for the most part they are unaffected by the Affordable Care Act.