Making a Rubio win even more unlikely is that so many Republicans have already cast early and absentee ballots, a record 1.14 million. That’s probably half of the electorate who will vote in the entire primary. So in order for Rubio to have a shot at winning, he’d need to win Election Day by the same margin that he has likely lost the early vote by.

Based on the averages of the recent Florida polls, Rubio’s deficit could be as big as 16.5 percentage points. If that’s accurate, it’s a nearly insurmountable lead by Trump: 190,000 ballots heading into Election Day…

But even if every remaining Miami-Dade Republican voted, Rubio would have to carry 75 percent of the vote just to tie Trump’s likely statewide performance. And that’s assuming Trump gets none of the remaining vote in Rubio’s county.

Miami-Dade’s turnout rate so far, 29 percent, is higher than the statewide average of 27 percent. Yet counties that most likely favor Trump are seeing stronger turnout rates that indicate he can afford to lose Miami-Dade to Rubio while cushioning his margins elsewhere. In Lee County, where Fort Myers is located, the turnout rate is 39 percent. And in The Villages Retirement community in Sumter County – where Rubio campaigned this weekend – more than half of the voters have already cast their ballots.