If Trump wins, expect thousands of defense jobs to move to Europe

“President Trump may prove offensive to Islamic states and those countries could seek alternative sources of weapons systems,” Byron Callan, an analyst with research firm Capital Alpha Partners wrote in a recent report. “European firms could benefit if countries seek to reduce U.S. defense dependence.”

That means billions of dollars that would go to American firms — Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and others — could shift to European arms makers, such as BAE Systems, Airbus, Thales, and Finmeccanica.

In recent years, foreign sales have been key for many arms makers, particularly as U.S. weapon sales have slowed. The war against the Islamic State group, or ISIS, has also boosted arms deals in the Middle East. Now defense industry watchers worry that a Trump administration could be bad for business.