What we don't know about Super Tuesday

Even in states with relatively fresh polls, there’s no way to judge the impact, if any, of last Thursday’s debate. In Texas, where favorite son Cruz leads by seven points in the RealClearPolitics average, the most recent poll was finished on debate day. The same is true for Virginia, where Trump leads by 15. In Georgia, where Trump is also up by 15, the most recent poll was finished the day before the debate. Same for Oklahoma.

In Massachusetts, a Suffolk poll, conducted mostly after the debate, shows Trump leading by 23 points. In Alabama, a post-debate Opinion Savvy poll shows Trump up by 13.

So no state has multiple polling after the debate, and most don’t have any. Did the widely-watched faceoff in Houston change the dynamics of the race? We don’t know. And if the debate had any effect, that effect is probably still settling out at this moment.