Younger voters across the country have outright rebelled against the prospect of a Clinton dynasty. Sanders won a whopping 84 percent of under-30s in Iowa, 83 percent in New Hampshire, and 82 percent in Nevada. Millennials were a critical component in Obama’s victories, casting aside their slacker reputations to turn out in record numbers in support of the president. Without Trump as a nominee, however, it’s very hard to see Clinton coming close to matching Obama’s rapport among this core Democratic constituency.
Meanwhile, despite her campaign’s best efforts to rally Hispanics by passionately advocating for immigration reform, there’s little sign that they’re following suit. Clinton’s campaign is probably right that they won the Hispanic vote in the Nevada caucuses, even with (flawed) entrance polls showing a narrow Sanders win. But she shouldn’t be celebrating too much. A narrow win over Sanders among Hispanic voters is hardly an encouraging sign, since Clinton overwhelmingly won their support in 2008 (64-26 percent over Obama) and has been much more outspoken on immigration than Sanders.
South Carolina will provide a crucial test for Clinton among the most important part of the Obama coalition: African-Americans. She’s expected to easily win the state thanks to strong support from black voters. But if turnout badly lags in the state, it’s a sign that she’s not generating the enthusiasm she’ll need with them in November. And if she struggles to win support from younger black voters, it’s a sign that the Black Lives Matter activists are just as consequential as the old-guard leadership backing her en masse.
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