The reason Nevada is such an interesting test case is because it otherwise looks like a really good state for Trump. Recent Nevada polls have Trump way ahead, with about 40 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, the polling firm Morning Consult, which has been conducting polls throughout the Republican nomination contest, has had Nevada as one of Trump’s best states. He’s polled at 48 percent among respondents in Nevada since the summer, according to Morning Consult, well ahead of his national average of 36 percent and tied for his second-best performance in any state. (Interestingly, the West is generally not a great region for Trump in Morning Consult or other polling. But Nevada — with its glitzy hotels, casinos, East Coast transplants and retiree population — seems to be a big exception.)
But those polls may have trouble identifying the tiny fraction of Nevadans who will show up at the caucuses today. In 2008, a CNN poll released two days before the Nevada caucuses had John McCain winning with 29 percent of the vote, followed by Mike Huckabee at 20 percent and Mitt Romney at 19 percent. The actual results? Romney 51 percent, with McCain in third with just 13 percent (behind Ron Paul and ahead of Huckabee). That’s about the least accurate poll I’ve ever seen. But, with voter participation in Nevada as low as it is, we should be sympathetic to the pollsters; they’re essentially looking for needles in haystacks.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member