Trump could probably get on the ballot as an independent if he wanted to

Sore loser laws in a few states do include presidential races, including Michigan and mega-swing-state Ohio, where Trump has already filed as a Republican. Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted has made crystal clear his intention to hold Trump to his Republican affiliation.

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The Ohio law requires an independent presidential candidate in Ohio to disaffiliate from any political party “in good faith” during this election cycle. Between the lines, this discretionary “good faith” provision could allow Ohio the legal grounds to point to Trump’s Republican affiliation in other states as an indication that he has not met the good-faith disaffiliation requirement. So while a law in one state can’t dictate what a candidate can (or cannot) do in another, Ohio can consider Trump’s behavior elsewhere as grounds for how they will treat him in that state.

That same discretionary provision allows for some gray area in Ohio. Case law precedent has gone both ways, and state laws impacting federal elections can be vulnerable to constitutional challenges. Trump could attempt a lawsuit to overturn the Ohio sore loser law or exempt himself from it. It certainly would not be the first time Trump has sued to challenge something he disagrees with. Conventional wisdom would counsel a candidate not to cause an unpopular legal ruckus, but ruckus is working for Trump, so who knows.

The Ohio law also means March 15, the date of the Ohio primary, is probably the tipping point to watch for whether Trump will attempt third-party bids for the states that follow.

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