I think Trump might have sealed the deal on Saturday night with New Hampshire voters. Yes, I think Jeb Bush got the better of Trump on the eminent domain exchange, but Trump’s campaign did a good rapid response job of pushing out Bush family eminent domain stories shortly thereafter. Trump had a good open, seemed more subdued throughout the debate, and I think it worked for him.

Polling in New Hampshire can be volatile, but it is nothing compared to polling in Iowa. In Iowa, people have to turn out all at the same time in a highly coordinated ground game. New Hampshire is just another election. Sure, it will probably snow on Tuesday, but the debate gave Trump supporters every reassurance that he is still in the game and committed to victory.

Unlike a lot of media folks now bashing Rubio’s performance, I suspect Rubio will come in second, but I don’t think the media can afford to play up a Rubio second place like they played up a Rubio third place in Iowa. This will be an actual victory for Donald Trump. Many of us who were cheering on his position in Iowa are going to have to give sufficient gloating rights to his supporters tomorrow night.

They bounced out of Iowa with wind out of their sails, regrouped, and I would not be surprised to see a Trump victory in New Hampshire. It will also give Trump supporters a new talking point. The victor of New Hampshire is more often the GOP nominee than the victor of Iowa.