Start with the fact that, even with the departure of George Pataki this week, there are still a dozen serious candidates running for the Republican nomination. It takes time for a field that large to sort itself out and thin down to one or two candidates. That’s before you consider that one of the dozen candidates is named Donald J. Trump — a man who is, without question, the least predictable politician ever to lead a major party’s nomination contest this late in the calendar. Trump has repeatedly pledged to carry the fight all the way to the convention, although it remains to be seen how he will cope with losing — if and when that happens.

Now consider the way that the Republican Party will allocate its delegates from the various primaries and caucuses next year. If your state holds a primary or caucus prior to March 15, you have to allocate the delegates won by candidates proportionally — meaning that the candidate who wins the state doesn’t get all of them (or even close). By my count, 26 states will vote prior to March 15 in 2016. That means that it’s VERY likely that come mid-March you will have three or four candidates with a creditable amount of delegates. There’s likely to be a leader. But he (or she) isn’t likely to be able to run away with it. And, if there are four viable options on March 1, then that quartet can cherry-pick states here and there over the next few months in which they can win and continue to accrue delegates. All the way to the convention floor.