The rules don’t stipulate whether Congress will stay in Republican hands after the election. But you ought to assume it will, since, under this scenario, the electorate that showed up voted for Trump, Carson, or Cruz. The only other rule is that you have to explain why you picked your guy, or at least why you didn’t pick either of the other two.

Over the course of the year, I’ve played this game with small groups of friends, colleagues, or family. Each time, just about everyone picks Trump. That surprises me. Most of my friends are liberal, and some are outright leftists. But some are moderate, and at least a couple have, at one time or another, voted for a Republican for president. Still, they all pick Trump.

Why? In general, they don’t think Trump is serious about the crazy stuff he says. They see Cruz as a clever ideologue. They think Carson is a nut job. But Trump? He’s a businessman. He cuts deals. He understands that there are other points of view and that to get things done, he’d have to negotiate. There’s no crazy campaign promise, no scary position, that he’d refuse to negotiate away.