The GOP establishment may need religious voters to stop Trump

Whoever does win Iowa will receive a lot of great press. Trump, if he loses, will likely receive a lot of negative press, particularly if he disappoints relative to expectations. That’s important because the primary calendar is stacked — New Hampshire votes eight days after Iowa — so momentum is key. A loss in Iowa could drag Trump down in New Hampshire. Of course, a Trump win would probably slap analysts such as myself into the reality that Trump has a better than decent shot of winning the nomination.

But let’s say Carson wins Iowa. The GOP establishment probably doesn’t want to nominate Carson much more than it wants to nominate Trump, but a Carson win is still preferable to a Trump one because Carson would have a hard time capitalizing in New Hampshire, which is full of moderate and liberal Republicans. That’s why Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie have been spending so much time in the Granite State. They’re hoping that Iowa wounds Trump, the Iowa winner is unacceptable to New Hampshire voters, and Bush, Christie or Kasich can pick up the scraps of Trump’s support.

There is danger in the establishment relying on the born-again/evangelical vote to derail Trump. What if Cruz wins Iowa and then wins or overperforms in New Hampshire? Cruz isn’t exactly loved by his colleagues in Washington, and he might not be that much more acceptable to establishment Republicans than Trump. Nor is it clear that Cruz, who is quite conservative, would be any more electable than Trump, who some have argued is a type of moderate.