Sorry, pundits: Ted Cruz has a real chance at the nomination

The Atlantic tracks candidate mentions on cable TV. Over the past 100 days, Cruz ranks ninth among all presidential candidates from both parties, well behind Chris Christie and just above Kasich. Christie may begin to get some traction, but was relegated to the undercard debate in Milwaukee and is looking to throw a Hail Mary in New Hampshire. Kasich wants to complete the same unlikely pass in the same place.

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Maybe the mentions of Cruz have picked up lately? No. Over about the past 30 days, he’s still ninth, just ahead of that juggernaut Martin O’Malley.

Well, Cruz is still pretty low in the polls, and coverage tends to follow the polling. Maybe that’s it? No. A Washington Post analysis specifically looked at the amount of cable TV coverage devoted to each candidate compared with his or her position in the polls. It found that Cruz got 60 percent less coverage than you’d otherwise expect from July through October.

From October to November, as the seriousness of his campaign has become even more evident, the disparity has gotten worse. According to the Post, “He’s on the air 70 percent less than his polling would suggest, even as he’s climbed past [Jeb] Bush and into fourth place in the race.”

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