One of the more unusual aspects to Donald Trump’s three-plus months at the top of the Republican field is that to so many, myself included, it still seems like it’s only temporary. A number of people who spend a lot of time looking at the numbers have, since he took the lead in July, written about the various reasons that his lead would only be temporary — again, myself included. People who rely on poll data were saying, in some sense, ‘I’m going with the numbers in my gut.’
But the real numbers, including those in the new Post-ABC poll, support the idea that Trump will continue to lead and could win the nomination.
There’s the topline number, of course, which shows Trump with a lead over the rest of the field. Nearly a third of Republican voters pick Trump as their candidate, followed by another 22 percent who pick Ben Carson. As we noted last week, those two share a base of support, meaning that if one were to drop out, the other could and likely would pick up much of his support. In other words: Trump has some room to grow.
What’s more, his lead has actually been much more stable over the course of 2015 than Mitt Romney’s was in the latter half of 2011.