A vote of the 340-member state Central Committee is scheduled a week from Saturday, and Paul is planning to be there to plead his case. Two-thirds support is required to finalize the changes. If Paul were to lose the vote, his team may still have legal avenues to run for both offices. But it would also represent a rare home-state rebuke at an inopportune time.

At issue is a Kentucky law that prevents candidates from appearing on the ballot twice. To circumvent that restriction, Paul’s team wants to scrap the state’s May presidential primary and replace it with a March 5 caucus. Switching to a nominating caucus does nothing to change the problem if he were the party’s presidential nominee. In that case, his name would be slated to appear on the general election ballot in both contests, creating a “real interesting legal question,” according to Robertson.

What has irked Republicans in Kentucky most is how Paul has yet to raise money for the caucus effort. It’s unclear exactly how much the caucuses will cost, though estimates range from a low of $350,000 to a high of $750,000. Other critics worry that the change will be so confusing that many voters will end up disenfranchised, even though the proposal includes an unusual process to allow absentee, military and overseas voting for eligible caucus participants.