These potential drawbacks to the strategy have largely materialized. Conservatives and swing voters who are paying attention have seen the Republican Congress act on business priorities: advancing a highway bill and getting a Trade Promotion Authority signed by the president. They have also seen them fret for months about the possibility that the Supreme Court would force them to do something about Obamacare, something Republican voters actually want, and then breathe sighs of relief that it didn’t.

Some of this activity was worthwhile — the trade bill, especially, was in the national interest — but Republicans have done little to advance attractive ideas to appeal to the voters watching them, or to make inattentive voters sit up and take notice. They haven’t pushed bills to cut taxes or boost economic growth or cut college tuition. And of course Congress has achieved nothing on immigration.

It isn’t surprising, then, that roughly a fifth of Republican voters are flocking to Trump, a candidate who promises big, not-terribly-specific changes — but seems like he might mean it.