Republicans are keenly aware of the blowback potential. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, an outspoken conservative up for reelection in 2016, warned his party of the political consequences in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this week: “If Republicans wait [to coalesce behind a solution], we will have no chance of countering Mr. Obama’s response.” Johnson also touted his own legislation, which would repeal the individual and employer mandates in exchange for maintaining subsidies until 2017.

Good luck getting that—or any of the other alternatives being discussed on Capitol Hill—through a divided Senate. If the law is rolled back, the White House is expected to propose legislation fixing the language to allow funding to resume for a federal exchange. On paper, a ruling theoretically could give Republicans leverage to draw concessions from the White House to restore funding for the exchanges, a deal along the lines of what Johnson proposed.

But the likelier scenario is one we’ve seen so often on Capitol Hill, when Republicans will have trouble getting unified behind any one proposal. As in budget battles of the recent past, conservative maximalists looking to stand on principle would be up against the GOP pragmatists worried that anyone losing benefits is political poison. And the high-stakes showdown will be taking place just as the 2016 presidential campaign is ramping up.