What the 2012 election could have looked like with 100 percent turnout

It’s very easy to see why Obama likes the idea. He spoke longingly of increased turnout during the 50th anniversary ceremony in Selma, Ala., earlier this month. There’s value in getting more people involved in the democratic process that doesn’t tie directly to the success of his party, but it’s clear that that’s a motivation. During last year’s election — an election in which non-white voters comprised only 25 percent of the vote, according to exit poll data — Obama’s party was routed. Increasing turnout would almost certainly have helped.

We can actually run a thought experiment that looks at an alternate 2012 universe in which voting was mandatory. If every citizen of voting age had come out to vote during Obama’s reelection race, the results would have been the same (that is, he would have won), but the electoral map would have looked much different.

The Census Bureau has historic data broken down by state, race and gender, which we can compare to exit poll data. We don’t have access to every state’s data, which is a very big caveat, but we can still see what the election might have looked like.