Facing 2018 reelection, Senate Dems Heitkamp, Manchin and McCaskill are mulling gubernatorial runs instead

Democrats need to win at least four seats — perhaps five — to retake the Senate next year, an achievable-but-difficult prospect based on the number of Republicans up for reelection in blue states. But if Manchin, Heitkamp and McCaskill depart, Democrats may need to run up a higher margin to protect their majority beyond 2016.

“The magic number becomes that much higher if you’re going to look ahead,” said Brian Walsh, a Republican strategist and former communications director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Under current state laws, if they run and win, each would have the opportunity to appoint a Senate replacement until the next election. The three Democrats could also lose, rendering them damaged goods if they try to run for reelection to the Senate.

For the senators themselves, the allure of the world’s greatest deliberative body may have waned. They’re facing at least two years in the minority of a chamber already wracked by gridlock and partisanship. The most exciting policy-making in the nation has been at the state level, and the thought of executive control may have more appeal than lawmaking.