Another year of executive action

Energy: The EPA is going to stay active throughout the year, with new rules expected in January to reduce methane pollution from oil and gas operations. The big event, though, will be the final carbon dioxide emissions rule for existing coal and natural gas-fired power plants, which is expected to be released by the summer. That’s the centerpiece of Obama’s climate change agenda, and it’s the one that’s likely to provoke the biggest fight from McConnell and other coal-state lawmakers. There’s also supposed to be a separate carbon dioxide rule that would cover future power plants, but its status is less clear and it could be released as late as June.

Labor: The highlight from the Department of Labor will be the release of the new overtime rule, expected sometime in February. It’s being drafted at the request of Obama, who called for an update to the current regulations in a March memorandum. The idea is to make millions of low-wage workers eligible for overtime pay by tightening the “white collar” exemptions, and it’s likely to raise the income threshold below which all workers must be given the extra pay, since that threshold has fallen below the poverty line for a family of four. Business groups are opposed, but Obama is pitching it as part of his agenda for helping the middle class.

Health care: The Senate will take a vote to repeal Obamacare, but since it may not even get enough votes to break a filibuster — much less win Obama’s signature — Republicans will turn to a piecemeal strategy of trying to knock out parts of the law with Democratic votes. The biggest threat to the law, however, is the Supreme Court lawsuit that could overturn the subsidies in the federal health insurance exchange, which serves 37 states. It’s the most dangerous lawsuit since the court’s 2012 ruling that upheld the law, and it’s likely to give Republicans an incentive to speed up their work on replacement plans — just in case they need them.