The one thing the piece misses is Putin’s dark vision of Russia’s future—a future that can only be avoided, he thinks, with quick and vigorous action. He is a bit like Robert E. Lee, knowing that his only hope is to out-think and out-general the other side. He needs some razzle dazzle. He knows that a cautious, plodding Russian foreign policy will sooner or later end in Russia’s permanent marginalization, caught between a Europe taking shape around Berlin (and backed by the United States) and a rising Beijing. Russia has to change the direction of history or it will inexorably decline.
Putin is fighting this trend in history, and he knows that this means he has to take bigger risks than stand-pat powers. Like Frederick the Great, he has to hunt for opportunities and jump in with both feet when he sees them (see: Georgia, Ukraine).
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