If the economy continues to improve, these changes will eventually be reflected in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings. An interesting point of comparison is Bill Clinton in early 1996. Mr. Clinton was still striking the same awkward balance as Mr. Obama, taking credit for recent growth while noting “there is another side to America’s economy: About half our people still haven’t gotten a raise in terms of real purchasing power of their incomes in 10 or 15 years.” It wasn’t clear to political observers as late as April 1996 how much credit Mr. Clinton would get from the public on the economy, given the insecurity that many voters still felt. But Mr. Clinton was eventually successful in attributing the strong economic recovery to his policies, which pushed his approval ratings to nearly 60 percent and helped him to easily defeat Bob Dole.
It is unlikely that Mr. Obama will receive as much credit as Mr. Clinton, of course. He faces two major obstacles. First, the strength of the economy under President Clinton eventually became difficult to deny, producing roughly parallel increases in economic approval across party lines. Mr. Obama seems unlikely to match the high levels of growth seen during the late 1990s, which substantially exceed the current economic forecasting consensus. He may struggle to change Americans’ minds if the economy is not growing at such a rapid clip.
The other thing working against Mr. Obama is the widespread divergence in his approval ratings between Democrats and Republicans, which in 2012 exceeded the record set during the George W. Bush administration.
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