Jeb Bush's ties to wealthy GOP donors put rivals in a bind

“Marco Rubio is going to have to make a decision about whether he can run a campaign, because it’s going to be more difficult for him to get support in Florida,” Mr. Sembler said. “He’s been an outstanding senator, and he’s got a great future in the public arena. But he comes from the same town as Gov. Bush, and I think our next nominee needs to have executive experience.”

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Mr. Bush’s allies say he knows he has to earn support, even from donors who have backed him and his family in the past.

One wild card in donor calculations is the uncertain intention of Mr. Romney. Spencer Zwick, who ran Mr. Romney’s fundraising operation in 2012, has been meeting with Republican donors in recent weeks to gauge their appetite for another bid, according to people familiar with those talks. Many of the meetings have been initiated by donors hoping to see Mr. Romney run again.

“If Gov. Romney were to run, one thing is for sure: The financial support would be there in a big way,” said Mr. Zwick, who said he fields regular calls from Republicans who want the former Massachusetts governor to enter the race.

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