The victory for Democrats, and defeat for Republicans, could be compounded by another possibility: Hillary Clinton winning the presidency in 2016. Sure, she might not run, and she might not win — but Republicans everywhere are worried she will do both. As the party searches for a powerhouse who can raise a billion dollars, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney is suddenly back at the top of everyone’s list. A Clinton win would not only be historic, as our first woman president, it would break a trend in which only once has either party has managed to hold the White House (former President George H. W. Bush, in 1992) for three consecutive terms in 60 years. Unlikely, but again — entirely possible.
There is also a structural disadvantage for Republicans in 2016, as they will be defending 24 seats in the Senate while Democrats will be up in only 10. Several of the GOP reelection campaigns will take place in blue states President Obama won twice, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. While the pendulum will swing back in 2018, when it will be far easier for Republicans to win a large number of Democratic seats — especially if it were a referendum on 10 years of Democrats in the White House — at that point it would be cold comfort.
Should Democrats hang on next month, there is also the fear that the Republican blame game will adversely impact an already divided party and a large GOP presidential field.
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